How Deadly is Coronavirus?
How deadly is the Coronavirus?
The Epidemic:
The outbreak of the epidemic in the Hubei Provincial capital of Wuhan in China has caused a global emergency and a threat. The outbreak coincided with the Lunar New year last year, and ever since, China has been trying to restart its economy.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a virus that is found in animals, and is zoonotic in nature. Very rarely, although possible, it can be transmitted to humans. It is believed that the epidemic started from a seafood market in Wuhan, where living or recently-killed animals are sold. In order to contract the virus, a human first needs to get in contact with the animal, and this can be further transmitted from humans. However, the exact source of the virus is not known, but it is speculated that it originated from a bat. The market is also known to be selling wild animals, like snakes and crocodiles.
Human coronaviruses were first identified in the 1960s. They are responsible for a significant amount of upper respiratory tract infections in children. The history of human coronaviruses began in 1965 when Tyrrell and Bynoe found that they could passage a virus named B814. The evolution and the earliest traces of the virus go back to the 1960s, when the virus was first found. It was found in human embryonic tracheal organ cultures, obtained from the respirational tract of an grown-up with a common cold.
Since 2003, at least 5 new human coronaviruses have been identified, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, which caused significant indisposition and mortality.
The Current Stats (2020):
Outside mainland China, the figures report over 75,000 cases across 30 locations in the world, including Europe and Africa. Due to the growing unrest, various travel restrictions and screenings for people moving in-or-out of china have been imposed.
The latest figures reported by every government’s health authority as of February 19, 2020 in Beijing:
— Mainland China:2,004 deaths among 74,185 cases; mostly in the central province of Hubei
— Hong Kong: 62 cases, 2 deaths
— Macau: 10
— Japan: 614 cases, including 542 from a cruise ship docked in Yokohama, 1 death
— Singapore: 81
— South Korea: 51
— Thailand: 35
— Malaysia: 22
— Taiwan: 22 cases, 1 death
— Vietnam: 16
— Germany: 16
— United States: 15 cases; separately, 1 U.S. citizen died in China
— Australia: 14
— France: 12 cases, 1 death
— United Kingdom: 9
— United Arab Emirates: 9
— Canada: 8
— Philippines: 3 cases, 1 death
— India: 3
— Italy: 3
— Iran: 3
— Russia: 2
— Spain: 2
— Belgium: 1
— Nepal: 1
— Sri Lanka: 1
— Sweden: 1
— Cambodia: 1
— Finland: 1
— Egypt: 1
Situation in China:
Various speculations have been made about the fact the Chinese President Xi Jinping knew about the virus two weeks before he informed the public. The death Li Wenliang , a doctor who tried to inform the people about the virus in December by writing about it in his medical school alumni group on messaging service WeChat has caused a lot of anger fuming around the environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUgkj0Emj98
Li later contracted Coronavirus and died on February 7, resulting in an outpouring of fury and grief over the ill-treatment. Chinese companies are unable to pay their staff, as a result of the virus. Chinese authorities and big employers have urged people to stay home. Shopping malls, restaurants, amusement parks and theatres are closed; non-essential travel is all but prohibited.
Another scenario to focus on is Hong Kong. Hong Kong in particular is under a major threat. In September 2019, the government of Hong Kong banned the face masks in order to control the peaceful protests. Now, the city does not have enough face-masks to provide to its senior citizens who are vulnerable and living in poverty. In addition to that, Carrie Lam also refused to close the border with mainland China to reduce the risk of coronavirus transmission. Lack of face-masks, hand sanitizer, and other necessities in an epidemic state is what you could expect in a failing state, nut not an advanced economy.
It is important the seriousness and the impact of the virus be acknowledged completely. This might as well be the biggest turn of events in the year 2020, as many countries, who solely rely on the production from china are in for a major disruptive run.
The impact on the world and the market:
It is quite clear that this is going to impact the Chinese economy drastically and their projections of annual growth are pretty much out the window now. But on a global scale, the impact is as deadly. There will be trouble for nations trading with china, and for nations who solely rely on supply from China.
China, being the global force in economy, has supply chains across the world which will now be disrupted. Breaking down of the Chinese economy would mean breaking down of the global economy, as china has trade linkages across the sphere. To think of few aspects, there are some things that could be only produced in china, and it is not only limited to electronics. For example, pharamceutical being a major component of the production economy. To think of travel, major airlines have shut down their services to china over the outbreak. And on the other end, if you reverse the tables, the outbound tourism has a greater impact all across Europe, the US, Singapore, Macau and Hong Kong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oyRC8i5qkfM
Considering the global economy, China is the second largest motion pictures market, but all the theatres are shut, since a gathering could be dangerous amidst the outbreak. In terms of numbers, global franchises have shut their outlets across China.
Following the epidemic, it is only seeming to get worse. China reported a low rate in the new cases but that came together with a leap in infections in South Korea and two apparent deaths in Japan. Researchers identify that the virus spreads more easily than what they previously believed. The anxieties over the impact of coronavirus on the overall economic growth have kept the markets across the globe frazzled.
Amidst all this, the biggest company in the world, Apple, will be seeing a setback in the launch of their new iPhone, iPhone 9 or iPhone SE2. Apart from this, Gold has risen more than 6% so far this year, in the middle of all the concerns about the economic impact caused by the virus. The prices of Gold showed a steady high on Thursday, as the People’s Bank of China said that they’ve lowered the loan prime rate by 10 points, from 4.15% to 4.05%. in the middle of this, Japan’s currency, Yen, rolled off to it’s lowest since August 2019, as the number of cases of the virus slow down.
The crisis could also potentially drive apart the US and China amidst the US-China trade-deal. Mr. Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, commented on the situation, identifying it as a wake-up call to not rely on the Chinese production of medicines or supplies.
However, President Trump openly commended the work of the President of china. “I know this: President Xi loves the people of China, he loves his country, and he’s doing a very good job with a very, very tough situation,” said the US President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, American officials fumed over China’s unwillingness to let officials and team enter Wuhan to help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WSRSdd7Fhs
Steps taken for prevention and the spread:
World Health Organization officials have praised China’s aggressive response to the virus by closing transportation, schools and markets. The Chinese government has tried to control the virus by introducing flow of money in the economy.
Chinese state-run television announced on its website that everyone returning to Beijing would be needed to isolate themselves for 14 days. The policy was designed to stop the virus from infecting country’s elite.
Methods | Source: www.nejm.org
VIRAL DIAGNOSTIC METHODS
Four lower respiratory tract samples, including bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid, were collected from patients with pneumonia of unknown cause who were identified in Wuhan on December 21, 2019, or later and who had been present at the Huanan Seafood Market close to the time of their clinical presentation. Seven bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid specimens were collected from patients in Beijing hospitals with pneumonia of known cause to serve as control samples. Extraction of nucleic acids from clinical samples (including uninfected cultures that served as negative controls) was performed with a High Pure Viral Nucleic Acid Kit, as described by the manufacturer (Roche). Extracted nucleic acid samples were tested for viruses and bacteria by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), using the RespiFinderSmart22kit (PathoFinder BV) and the LightCycler 480 real-time PCR system, in accordance with manufacturer instructions.Samples were analyzed for 22 pathogens (18 viruses and 4 bacteria) as detailed in the Supplementary Appendix. In addition, unbiased, high-throughput sequencing, described previously, was used to discover microbial sequences not identifiable by the means described above. A real-time reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR) assay was used to detect viral RNA by targeting a consensus RdRp region of pan β-CoV, as described in the Supplementary Appendix.
ISOLATION OF VIRUS
Bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid samples were collected in sterile cups to which virus transport medium was added. Samples were then centrifuged to remove cellular debris. The supernatant was inoculated on human airway epithelial cells, which had been obtained from airway specimens resected from patients undergoing surgery for lung cancer and were confirmed to be special-pathogen-free by NGS.
Human airway epithelial cells were expanded on plastic substrate to generate passage-1 cells and were subsequently plated at a density of 2.5×105 cells per well on permeable Transwell-COL (12-mm diameter) supports. Human airway epithelial cell cultures were generated in an air–liquid interface for 4 to 6 weeks to form well-differentiated, polarized cultures resembling in vivo pseudostratified mucociliary epithelium.
Prior to infection, apical surfaces of the human airway epithelial cells were washed three times with phosphate-buffered saline; 150 μl of supernatant from bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid samples was inoculated onto the apical surface of the cell cultures. After a 2-hour incubation at 37°C, unbound virus was removed by washing with 500 μl of phosphate-buffered saline for 10 minutes; human airway epithelial cells were maintained in an air–liquid interface incubated at 37°C with 5% carbon dioxide. Every 48 hours, 150 μl of phosphate-buffered saline was applied to the apical surfaces of the human airway epithelial cells, and after 10 minutes of incubation at 37°C the samples were harvested. Pseudostratified mucociliary epithelium cells were maintained in this environment; apical samples were passaged in a 1:3 diluted vial stock to new cells. The cells were monitored daily with light microscopy, for cytopathic effects, and with RT-PCR, for the presence of viral nucleic acid in the supernatant. After three passages, apical samples and human airway epithelial cells were prepared for transmission electron microscopy.
TRANSMISSION ELECTRON MICROSCOPY
Supernatant from human airway epithelial cell cultures that showed cytopathic effects was collected, inactivated with 2% paraformaldehyde for at least 2 hours, and ultracentrifuged to sediment virus particles. The enriched supernatant was negatively stained on film-coated grids for examination. Human airway epithelial cells showing cytopathic effects were collected and fixed with 2% paraformaldehyde–2.5% glutaraldehyde and were then fixed with 1% osmium tetroxide dehydrated with grade ethanol embedded with PON812 resin. Sections (80 nm) were cut from resin block and stained with uranyl acetate and lead citrate, separately. The negative stained grids and ultrathin sections were observed under transmission electron microscopy.
VIRAL GENOME SEQUENCING
RNA extracted from bronchoalveolar-lavage fluid and culture supernatants was used as a template to clone and sequence the genome. We used a combination of Illumina sequencing and nanopore sequencing to characterize the virus genome. Sequence reads were assembled into contig maps (a set of overlapping DNA segments) with the use of CLC Genomics software, version 4.6.1 (CLC Bio). Specific primers were subsequently designed for PCR, and 5′- or 3′-RACE (rapid amplification of cDNA ends) was used to fill genome gaps from conventional Sanger sequencing. These PCR products were purified from gels and sequenced with a BigDye Terminator v3.1 Cycle Sequencing Kit and a 3130XL Genetic Analyzer, in accordance with the manufacturers’ instructions.
Multiple-sequence alignment of the 2019-nCoV and reference sequences was performed with the use of Muscle. Phylogenetic analysis of the complete genomes was performed with RAxML (13) with 1000 bootstrap replicates and a general time-reversible model used as the nucleotide substitution model.
Read more at https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8KdBi87aJw
Various governments have taken measures to prevent the spread of Corona virus in their countries:
⦁ The Russian govt. on Wednesday confirmed that they have banned entry for Chinese nationals in Russia in an attempt to prevent the epidemic. Russia shares over1,000kms of land border with china and is one of the biggest Chinese trading partner.
⦁ Schools in Mongolia to remain shut till 30th march. Gathering of large groups of people could be considered dangerous.
⦁ The US and the Australia have banned entry for all the Non-citizens coming from China.
⦁ The US has started to test some people with flu like symptoms for infection with the coronavirus in five cities. The cities are Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago and New York.
⦁ Singapore has set aside $4 billion to help businesses and households amid coronavirus outbreak, said Finance Minister, Heng Swee Keat.
⦁ South Korea announces $356m in loans for industries hit by coronavirus.
Summary:
It is still early to predict the entire effect of the epidemic, as we do not yet know of the pace. Even though it has been informed that there has been a slow morbidity rate in the virus, we still cannot completely be sure about how the epidemic will play out.
The country is on a lockdown, and will need to restart its economy soon. It is about time the world realised that the impact is bigger than we imagined. Not only does it affect the people of china and the Chinese economy, but the whole-wide world.
Article by: Muskan Chhajer | muskan@rvrg.holdings |+91-74000 75075
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